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  • Dr. Nasir Shaikh

Election 2020 Analysis North Carolina 10/28/20

Latest Election updates as of Wednesday Oct 28th This is all the data I have gathered from the different states  BOE sites and various other Early Voting (EV) & Mail in Ballot (MIB) return sites NC: Still gathering info by different counties... Here are #'s for Early Voting (EV) & Mail in Ballots (MIB) ... As of Wednesday October 28th... R are ahead of their 2016 EV totals by 7 points... Back in 2016 HC had a 310,000 EV lead going into election nite and list NC by 3.6%... As of today D have a 230,000 EV lead NC Republicans by 55% plus have historically voted on Election day effectively erasing any lead Dems have in EV... In last 3 days (R) share of EV total vote  went from 24% to 26.3%... In same time period share of (D) EV total vote went down from 46.5% to 45% From a historical perspective at similar dates in 2012 (D) had 47% and R had 32%.... In 2016 it was (D) 42% & (R) 33%.... This is showing that in NC the (D) share of the vote is decreasing each election cycle... Black EV voting is down and falling. EV from Blacks in NC are down by about 1.5% compared to 2016... In 2008 BO received a huge majority and % of Black vote which was to be expected. Still he only won NC by 1 pt. Remember, he was running against John McCain who only received 4% of Black vote nationwide. ... % of Black share of total vote was 23%... As of 3 days ago it is 21% and dropping... You also have to factor in the polls which are proving me right as usual which is all the (D) Black vote is not going to Biden... Rasmussen did poll few days ago showing 46% of Blacks supported Trump. So you have to figure that a huge % of Black Democrats will vote for Trump... Biden's coalition of minority voters is crumbling... Look at these numbers... In 2008 John McCain nationally received 4% of Black vote... In 2012 Romney received 6% of Black vote... In 2016 Trump received 9% of Black vote... I believe Trump will get between 10,-15% of Black vote on low side and between 20-25% of Black vote on high side. As of today I predict Trump wins NC BY 3-5%...I would not be shocked if Trump  wins NC  by 5-7%

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