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  • Dr. Nasir Shaikh

Election 2020 Analysis Pennsylvania 10/28/20

Latest Election updates as of Wednesday Oct 28th This is all the data I have gathered from the different states  BOE sites and various other Early Voting (EV) & Mail in Ballot (MIB) return sites PA: In 2016 all the experts and political pundits and the polls had HC winning PA by average of 9.4 points... I mean EVERYBODY had Pennsylvania in the win column for HC. If you dared to say differently you were laughed at like the village idiot and called delusional as well.... Well guess what... I must have been one of the those "Proud Delusional Village Idiots" back in 2016 because I predicted Pennsylvania would go to Trump. As of yesterday Biden was running about 10 points behind HC numbers in 2016.... HC had 84% of Philly vote and Biden is getting only 74%... In 2012 BO got nearly 92% of Philly note... Trump is increasing his share of Philly vote by 9 points currently which means he is getting around 24% of Philadelphia vote which is absolutely astonishing.... So if his 24% remains into election nite and Trump holds this kind of lead in Philadelphia he will PA by my analysis between 250,000- 350,000 votes.... If he continues to grow his numbers in the rural areas in the northern, western and southern part of the state  in areas like Mercer, Butler, Lawrence and Erie counties his winning margin by votes may even exceed half a million.... It will be interesting to see how Biden performs in areas like Scranton,  Allentown, Chester and Center counties... I expect Trump to win Pennsylvania between 2-4%. If he exceeded 5% it would not surprise me. .. The only scenario where Trump loses is if they allow Dems to " ballot harvest" votes days after the election.

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